T0day I mentioned to a Democratic party activist my surprise at seeing a recent drumbeat of Rob McKenna ads on the Internet but nothing from Jay Inslee. The activist raised the question of whether those ads violate state election law — and that it was typical of McKenna to play fast and loose. He predicted that a Governor McKenna would engage in G. W. Bush-style cronyism.
This activist was not an Inslee operative. To the contrary, he questioned whether Inslee had the fire in the belly to run a competitive race and wondered why the Democrats couldn’t come up with a better candidate.
I’ll leave it to the investigative reporters to document whether our attorney general has violated the law. What I’d like to discuss here is whether Washington’s Democrats have run out of gas.
This was going to be a difficult election cycle regardless of who the Democrats nominated. McKenna’s home turf in vote-rich King County, a relatively moderate image and statewide name recognition all add up to the most formidable Republican gubernatorial candidate since the 1980s. The no-win choices a Democratic controlled statehouse must make to fill a huge budget gap could also become a crucial disadvantage. McKenna’s only major downside is having to keep the Tea Party happy without also scaring off moderate voters.
Perhaps that’s why it was so easy for Inslee to clear the field of major Democratic rivals. But now that he has the ball what is he going to do with it? I just took another cruise through his website and don’t see a whole lot to excite. Perhaps I’m missing something, but it isn’t at all clear how Inslee would distinguish himself from Gregoire if elected. For example, he describes himself as a “maverick” when it comes to governmental reform. Okay, but what does that mean? Gregoire with a tie? Andrew Cuomo-style combativeness?
I get that at this early stage only the political junkies are really paying attention. However, McKenna is doing a pretty good job of cementing his front-runner status by offering more detailed policy prescriptions (see here and here). McKenna has also been quite successful at spooking the Democrats with an aggressive early campaign.
Folks like the activist cited above aren’t too worried about a recent poll showing McKenna ahead– particularly with independent voters. What’s more disconcerting are stories about the Inslee campaign’s apparent complacency.
For example, in a Horse’s Ass posting about recent polls, commentator RadarX offers an example of an Inslee no-show and notes how “McKenna’s ads are all over the sidebars of the blogs I read; HuffPo, the Stranger, TPM, etc. Inslee’s nowhere to be seen. I guess he thinks that the stranger’s editorials are gonna carry his entirely for him.”
This isn’t an isolated complaint. So I have to ask: What’s the Inslee campaign’s strategy in flying so far under the radar? They would do well to start sharing their game plan if they wish to maintain credibility with the activists who they will presumably need to pull an upset victory next November.
jerome
January 28, 2012
Inslee must first run against Gregoire before he has any chance against McKenna. Many Progressives are soured on Gregoire’s failure to lead on tax reform and to defer to Eyman.
Tom Hyde
January 29, 2012
Meh. They all seem like game show hosts to me.
olympiaviews
January 29, 2012
Tom, say that to the people who have to work for the governor. I think it matters a great deal — kind of like Gore versus G. W. The governor has enormous agenda-setting power.
Tom Hyde
January 29, 2012
To be sure, and I always vote. Always. But, just channeling a little of the apathy, angst, and alienation that many (most) feel. Things are broken.
olympiaviews
January 30, 2012
Tom, could you say more about what you mean by “broken?”
Sure, Washington isn’t a progressive nirvana, but it has a fairly well-functioning government compared to other similarly sized light-purple states. Perhaps because of Washington’s progressive era moorings it has considerably less machine politics, outright corruption and crass inefficiency than many other states — to say nothing of the federal government.
For example, unlike many other states our revenue projections and redistricting processes are coordinated by bipartisan commissions — which insulate them at least a wee bit from raw partisan hanky-panky. Our capital budget process does not suffer from major corruption because we have more financial checks and balances than many other states. And our elections are relatively clean due to fairly tough campaign financial disclosure laws.
I’m not saying all this to apologize for what is wrong with Washington. But if you’re going to live in the U.S., there aren’t that many other states which compare favorably to ours.
Now, one could also argue that our society is struggling mightily to catch up to a remarkably fast-changing world. That there’s a dangerous gap between the size and complexity of our problems and our collective ability to respond to them.
The latter argument makes a lot of sense to me. But, truth be told, pretty much no one in the world is doing all that well in staying apace of the 21st Century.
Tom Hyde
January 31, 2012
I have written and deleted four lengthy reponses and attempts to better define my previous comment. I’m sticking here to generalities, my overall feeling instead of intellectualizing it.
Suffice it to say I am cynical about the institutions we have created to serve us. I am not so cynical about individuals, unless they are running for public office.
Yes, I’ll vote based on an individual’s set of values. I would someday like to vote again for a human being. Those were good days. But I’m pragmatic about it. I’m older now.
Still, it really would be nice if people stopped pissing on my leg while telling me it’s raining. Does it all have to be spin and gamesmanship? It’s awful. Painful. Like nails on a chalkboard. And really, I’m not that stupid.
I’ve voted consistently since I was 18. I will continue to do so. But likely, without passion or any real sense of expectation. More as a hedge against what’s worse.
Hence, meh.
Rob Richards
February 2, 2012
Last night’s marriage equality vote in the Senate may have changed this race dramatically. There’s probably something like a 95% chance that the Governor will soon be signing it into law, which unfortunately means that it’ll most likely be on the ballot for a popular vote.
My prediction is that if marriage equality wins, Inslee wins – and if it loses, Inslee loses.
tom hyde
February 3, 2012
I predict if it goes on the ballot, Inslee wins big regardless of the outcome on marriage. That issue would ramp up voter turnout in King County and that only benefits Inslee. But even if that doesn’t happen, Inslee still wins (barring the traditional caveat of no horrendous revelations prior to the election).
It’s interesting because McKenna could have had a fighting chance to be Governor running as an Evans moderate. I appreciated his even handed relatively nonpartisan efforts early on as an advocate for open government and consumers. But he seemed to blow that out the water starting with his healthcare lawsuit. It appeared that he started pandering to the more conservative and tea party elements of his own party which either was a result of showing his true colors or a incredibly stupid miscalculation for this state.